World Cup Last-16 Predictions: Harry Maguire Will Return to England After the USA Can Drop the Netherlands
On Saturday, the World Cup’s round of 16 begins, and our picker Jones Knows sits in the prediction chair to sift through some tempting betting opportunities.
Netherlands Vs USA, Saturday 3pm
Favorite backers’ heads must be spinning at this World Cup, and there could be more surprises in the last-16, beginning with this match, in which Sky Bet has made the Netherlands 2/5 to advance to the quarterfinals. That represents a probability of about 72%. Not for me, Geoff.
A simplistic drawdown of the expected goals data from albeit a small sample size of three games certainly brings USA into the equation of winning this tie.
Netherlands topped Group A despite producing a negative expected goals process (-0.33) and lost both expected goals battles against Senegal and Ecuador. Some concerning flaws in their procedure are being covered up by Cody Gakpo’s accurate shooting.
In the meantime, the USA have outperformed expectations, displaying quality and steel in midfield with the excellent Yunus Musah flanked by Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie. Against Iran and England, that trio controlled the game.
The same should occur here, and I fully anticipate the USA to move into some favorable goal-scoring positions. Whether they have the ability to capitalize on these opportunities, though, is concerning, and a scoreless game appears very likely.
This discourages me from betting on them to win in the outright result market, but I am interested in one wager in the first half shots on target market. The first 45 minutes of each of the three Group B games saw the USA play with a lot of enthusiasm and assurance. There appears to be a clear gameplan to start the game quickly and take the game to the opposition, as 75% (1.96) of their total expected goals output (2.6) in this tournament have come before halftime. This is what got me interested in the Evens from Sky Bet that the USA will have two or more shots on goal in the first half.
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